The Art Market in 2025: Challenges, opportunities, and what lies ahead

Last week, I attended a panel discussion at the London Art Fair’s What’s Next in the Art Market?, hosted by Lindsay Dewar – Head of Analytics at ArtTactic. The discussion featured industry experts, including Julia Bell (Parapluie Art Advisory), Georgina Walker (Beaumont Nathan), and Martina Batovic (Artisan Art Intelligence). The conversation explored key shifts from 2024 and what we can expect in 2025. Here are my takeaways.

As we move into 2025, the global art market continues to navigate a period of adjustment. The UK auction market declined by 12.3% in 2024, yet ArtTactic’s annual survey of industry experts reveals that 23% expect market growth this year—a slight increase from 20% in 2024. While the U.S. market is showing the most optimism, confidence in the UK remains lower, with only 13% of experts foreseeing growth.

So, what were the key takeaways from 2024, and what can we expect moving forward?

Lessons from 2024: A market in transition

The past year saw a shift in the relationship between artists, galleries, collectors, and museums. Artists gained more control over where and how their work was sold, forcing galleries to adopt more flexible business models. The cooling of the speculative art market also gave collectors more purchasing power, reducing restrictions that galleries once imposed.

Museums, too, faced pressures from market trends. While artists often prioritise museum representation, institutions are increasingly influenced by private collectors, raising questions about how much market forces should dictate museum curation.

Overall, the speculative frenzy surrounding young contemporary artists subsided, leading to a more selective approach from buyers. Established artists maintained strong market positions, but younger artists saw price corrections. Private sales grew as auction houses struggled, with Sotheby’s in particular, where sales dropped by 23% in 2024. 

Macro Economic and political uncertainty also played a role in shaping the market, making 2024 a buyer’s market. Sellers held back unless absolutely necessary, resulting in increased collaboration between advisors and galleries on commissions. Major auction houses, particularly Sotheby’s, faced challenges, and their attempts to restructure fees largely benefited competitors.

Despite these hurdles, experts agree that the 2024 market correction was necessary to restore stability and long-term confidence.

2025 Art Market outlook: What to expect?

While the market remains cautious, industry experts predict some areas of growth. The mid-market—works priced between $50,000 and $500,000—is expected to see strong activity. While the total value of art sold in 2024 decreased, the number of works sold remained the same, and this trend is expected to continue.

Regional expansion is another key area to watch. There is growing interest in developing local collector bases, following successful models in Japan and Germany, where regional collectors sustain their markets without heavy reliance on art fairs or digital platforms. The Middle East is also poised for growth, with Saudi Arabia’s first Sotheby’s auction.

At the same time, financial pressures may force commercial galleries to rethink their business models, with more adopting hybrid advisory approaches or shifting towards project-based sales.

Challenges facing the Art Market in 2025

Several key issues could shape the market this year:

• Operational Inefficiencies: Many galleries and auction houses still rely on outdated systems, making processes slow and costly. Modernization is needed, and AI could be a solution to this.
• Complex Deal Structures: With the gallery market shifting toward project-based sales, longer chains of intermediaries make it difficult to track buyers and sellers, increasing risks of disputes and fraud.
• The UK’s Global Position: Economic and political shifts have led some high-net-worth collectors to leave the UK, raising concerns about its long-term standing as a global art hub.

Opportunities for growth and change

Despite these challenges, 2025 presents new opportunities:

• Improving market accessibility: New collectors often struggle to buy from top galleries due to exclusivity barriers. More openness in the primary market could help broaden collector bases and reduce auction-driven price spikes.
• Buying opportunities in a soft market: With prices cooling, there are strong opportunities for collectors to acquire significant works, especially in post-war and modern art.
• Expansion in the Middle East & Asia: The art world’s growing interest in new markets is clear, with landmark exhibitions and auctions in the Middle East and Uzbekistan drawing attention. Larger commercial galleries, particularly those in the UK, could play a role in fostering smaller galleries rather than solely focusing on established artists. Encouraging growth at the grassroots level would strengthen the overall market.

As we move forward, the 2025 art market is set to stabilise, offering both challenges and opportunities. While financial and regulatory pressures remain, the cooling market allows for more thoughtful collecting, fairer pricing, and the potential for growth in emerging regions.

For collectors, this is a good time to buy. For galleries, it’s a time to adapt. And for the art world as a whole, 2025 could be a year of resetting expectations and building a more sustainable market for the future.